RBA's next move

If you own property in Queensland—or you’re helping adult children into the market—you’ve probably noticed two things: prices didn’t roll over in 2025, and yet the pace is no longer uniform. As we head into the Reserve Bank’s first meeting of the year next week, here’s a concise, practical look at where prices are holding up, where they might not, and how a potential rate move could affect your borrowing power. [cotality.com], [tradingeconomics.com]

Quick thought: if the RBA nudges rates higher, are you confident your current pre‑approval still fits your plan?

The 2025 backdrop in one minute

• National dwelling values rose strongly through 2025—around 8.6%–9.2%—with momentum easing into December as Sydney and Melbourne ticked slightly lower for the month. [cotality.com], [tradingeconomics.com]

• Queensland defied the late‑year wobble: Brisbane rose ~1.6% in December, highlighting the state’s relative strength into 2026 as listings remain tight and buyers shift towards more affordable units. [abc.net.au]

• The common thread? Supply constraints persist—and in parts of South East Queensland (SEQ), new dwelling supply continues to trail underlying demand, supporting prices and rents. [goldcoastc…ber.com.au]

Question for you: Are you seeing the same pattern in your suburb—quality listings selling quickly while compromised stock sits?

2026 outlook — Slower, more localised growth

Expect national price growth to cool to ~2%–6% this year as higher mortgage costs cap enthusiasm. But the floor under prices is supported by population growth and tight stock. In downsizer/interstate‑buyer hot spots—think established pockets of the Gold Coast and Brisbane’s blue‑chip suburbs—annual gains of ~4%–7% remain realistic. Fringe, investor‑heavy areas are more likely flat to low single digits. [propertyup…ate.com.au]

Why Queensland still has an edge

• Momentum & undersupply: Brisbane’s December surge (+1.6%) contrasts with declines in Sydney/Melbourne for the month. [abc.net.au]

• “Imported” buyers set the tone: Interstate downsizers bring higher price anchors from Sydney/Melbourne, seeing SEQ as comparatively good value until those price gaps compress further. [propertyup…ate.com.au]

• Pipeline realities: On the Gold Coast, approvals/completions lag underlying demand—another reason the market is tighter than headlines suggest. [goldcoastc…ber.com.au]

What this means for you: Expect bigger suburb‑by‑suburb splits. A‑grade, scarce properties (location, schools, transport, lifestyle) hold pricing power; compromised stock faces pushback.

The rate question — What is the RBA's next move?

Here’s what’s locked in and what’s live:

• Meeting dates: The RBA meets 2–3 February under its eight‑meeting schedule; the decision prints 2:30 pm AEDT, Tue 3 February. The cash rate sits at 3.60% today. [rba.gov.au]

• Labour market is tight: 65,200 jobs were added in December and unemployment fell to 4.1%—data that strengthens the case for a hike if inflation proves sticky. [abs.gov.au]

• Markets are split: ASX futures have swung between a hold and roughly a 50–60% chance of a +0.25% hike (3.85%), depending on the day. Some outlets still see “no change” as base case. [asx.com.au], [abc.net.au]

• The decider is CPI: December‑quarter CPI lands 28 January. Westpac trimmed forecasts to 0.5% q/q (headline) and 0.7% q/q (trimmed mean); a hotter core read increases the odds of a hike. The ABS has flagged this release date for months. [westpaciq.com.au], [abs.gov.au]

• Bank calls: CBA and NAB have warned to prepare for a February hike, with NAB also leaning towards another in May. [au.finance.yahoo.com]

Our working view: Slightly better than even odds of a +0.25% hike—but CPI‑dependent. A benign core print could see a hawkish hold with March kept live. [asx.com.au], [westpaciq.com.au]

What a hike (or a hold) means for your borrowing power

• If the RBA hikes +0.25%: Expect ~4%–5% less maximum borrowing capacity once lenders pass on the move and keep assessment buffers (~3%) in place. Practically, many buyers trade down in budget or suburb rather than exit. [propertyup…ate.com.au]

• If the RBA holds at 3.60% but guides hawkish: Buffers stay elevated; fixed rates are unlikely to fall meaningfully. Expect a continuation of tight stock + selective competition across SEQ. [abc.net.au]

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Personal example: If your current limit is $1.00m, a +0.25% hike could shave it to roughly $950k–$960k; a cumulative +0.50% could bring it to around $880k–$920k, depending on your profile. [propertyup…ate.com.au]

Practical options for 2026 — Owner‑occupiers, investors, and downsizers

1.    Refresh your pre‑approval early

Small tweaks to income verification, existing debt treatment and living‑expense assumptions can move capacity by tens of thousands—especially if the RBA moves. We can run hold vs +25 bp scenarios for you.

Question: If your limit dropped 5–10% overnight, which suburb or property type would you switch to? [abs.gov.au], [westpaciq.com.au]

2.    Think micro‑markets, not “the market”

In SEQ, well‑located units (lifestyle precincts) and A‑grade houses (school catchments, beachside, rapid transit access) are attracting deeper buyer pools. Compromised stock—poor layouts, high levies, limited parking—faces longer days on market. [abc.net.au]

3.    Expect “imported” capital to keep shaping prices

On the Gold Coast, buyers from Sydney/Melbourne often see prices as good value, supporting premium pockets until the inter‑city price gap narrows further. [propertyup…ate.com.au]

4.    Investors: balance yield and growth

With tight vacancies across much of SEQ, units can stack better on yield, while houses capture long‑term scarcity value. Keep buffers for rates, insurance and potential tenancy rule changes around the May Federal Budget cycle. [abc.net.au]

What to watch over the next week

• 28 Jan CPI (Dec‑qtr): Watch the trimmed mean—a hot read ups hike risk; a softer one buys time. [westpaciq.com.au], [abs.gov.au]

• 3 Feb RBA decision & statement: The tone on services inflation, wages and housing sets the path into March. [rba.gov.au]

• Daily pricing signals: Keep an eye on the ASX Rate Tracker and futures‑implied odds. [asx.com.au], [rba.isaacgross.net]

• SEQ listing volumes: If listings stay scarce through late summer, price support persists—even with a hike. [abc.net.au]

The wise move now

The easy gains are behind us, but there’s no cliff in sight. Expect shallower rises and bigger suburb‑level spreads. Next week’s RBA call matters for your borrowing capacity, so the sensible step is to be approval‑ready and clear on your plan before the Board meets. [cotality.com], [tradingeconomics.com]

We will know on the 3rd February 2026 what is the RBA's next move is.

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